Finished!

THANK GOD.

Data input for my punting analysis has finally finished. I must NEVER allow myself to get four months behind again as it was a painfully long process to catch up. Nevertheless, it is now done. 2,886 records input, covering both my Lucky and Hot systems. Here is a summary of where the base data sits:

		# Bets	Total Div	%	SR
Lucky	Win	1374	1,236.45	-10%	19%
	Place	1374	1,404.99	2%	48%
Hot	Win	1414	1,459.31	3%	20%
	Place	1414	1,444.80	2%	46%
Both	Win	98	70.35	-28%	22%
	Place	98	78.35	-20%	44%

It's actually better than I thought it would be. Three out of four categories are in (small) profit, prior to analysis and adjustment of rules. Of course these numbers are swayed somewhat by the $126 Hot winner I had recently, so I will need to put in a top-cut as part of my statistical work. Still, it looks promising. Interesting though, that when a horse qualified for both systems at once, the results were significantly poorer. Still, much less data to go on there, which I am pretty sure is the main reason behind that result.

Apart from top-cut, the other thing I want to focus on, and actually my main focus, will be strike rate. If I can achieve a 50% SR in place betting, I would need an average dividend of 2.10 to make a 5% profit. That is certainly achieveable, but I would be far happier if my required average dividend was below $2. In order to reach that goal, I need to improve my strike rate.

Same for win bets. I think a SR of 30% should do the trick, that would require an average dividend of $3.50 to make 5% profit. I feel fare more comfortable about that dividend, but getting a 30% SR will be no easy task.

Plus I also need to strike a balance in terms of volume. I don't want to have 100 bets per week, nor do I want to have 2. I am hoping to have enough turnover to strike my predicted outcomes on a monthly or at worst quarterly basis, but at this stage I have no idea. Anyway, time to clean the data, finish inputting the tracks, and then get down to some stats!