Punting Results - Saturday 30th April 2016

Well about time I posted according to my namesake and the name of this blog - about punting on horse racing! Well at this point in time, selecting horses using systems, not actually betting.

After many years of being a mug punter, and a half-arsed sophisticated punter, I have decided to put my industry and mathematical knowledge to the test, to see if I can come up with one or more systems that can make me money. I am doing a trial on paper over a year, in order to test and fine tune my theories.

So I have two systems, one called Hot and another called Lucky. Hot is based on a variety of selection criteria, whereas Lucky is based almost purely on a horses last four starts. I won't go into too much detail here, that will be the topic of another post. Anyway, for now I will post my results for each week's main day of action, which is obviously Saturday. Here are yesterday's results:

Hot System

Selections: 34
Winners: 8, SR 23.5%
Placed: 17, SR 50.0%
Win Return: 27.35 or -19.5%
Place Return: 42.70 or +25.6%

Lucky System

Selections: 17
Winners: 2, SR 11.8%
Placed: 8, SR 47.1%
Win Return: 16.20 or -5.0%
Place Return: 18.50 or +8.8%

Both systems performed yesterday fairly consistently with their overall performance YTD. Although the place return was higher than average, mainly due to a $14.80 place dividend in one of the Hot races, which is almost unheard of!

Still, the results are very encouraging, as I know for sure I can fine tune both these systems. At this point in time, while return obviously tells one if one is profitable, I am focusing mainly on strike rate. I need about 50% for place betting on average, and as close to 33% for win betting as I can get to. I would prefer to go win betting, as the chances for better dividends are higher, but I need that strike rate above 30% at least in order to be able to do it. I can consistently do above 20%, but I need it to be higher.

Anyway, much, much more on this topic to come!