Punt - September 2019

We're approaching Melbourne Cup season, the G1 action is already heating up, both in Sydney and Melbourne. I love horse racing - I know a lot of people abhor it because of perceived cruelty to the horses, but it is an amazing spectacle, and one of the few ways one can apply science to gambling in the hope of gaining a winning edge.

This so-called edge is something I have been pursuing for some years now. I have rated 1000's of races, using a host of different approaches. Some have been simple, others as convoluted as hell. Yet none have provided long-term success. That may partially be because I have not had the patience to see them through perhaps, I am not sure.Most recently, I have been advocating an approach that looked at favourites (may as well use the will of the masses to weed out the no-hopers) and then cut that down based on a few key criteria, as well as nous and judgement. It all sounds good in theory, but once again, was a little inconsistent for my liking, despite some grand performances.

Enter Practical Punting magazine. I get this e-mag monthly. It largely advertises its own products, but also frequently has some great info on what other punters are doing - particularly the successful ones.

I read an article on an interview with a group of successful professional or semi-pro punters, and how they make their selections. One person stood out in particular, as he back clear-cut favourites. However, different to me, he only bets on Tuesdays and Thursdays, or non-metro Wednesday meetings. I was basically trying to pursue the opposite of this - with some success, but not consistently enough. Now that I think of it, I think his point has merit - there are a lot of factors that determine why favourites get beaten more often than not. One of these has got to be the class and form of the other horses. In metro meetings,trainers aim their best horses there, for the top prize money and ratings. But for the punter, frequently the returns are no different to lesser races elsewhere.

So figuring that favourites that match key criteria in non-metro meetings might just be less likely to be rolled by some unknown, I figured this was worth a trundle. Today it resulted in one selection only. It won at $1.40. Now to make money at $1.40, one needs a hell of a good strike rate. But I think it was a bit low today. I am not sure why Tue/Thu are the days of choice. I might run a trial based on all days of the week for non-metro, and see how we go. Watch this space....