Australian Lotto - What really are the odds? Plus a couple of strategies...

So I have always been a bit of a gambler. I love a punt, enjoy playing Lotto, and dream of one day winning the jackpot, being able to retire, and live out my days doing whatever I like - generally the vision involves a tropical seaside location, cold beer and cocktails, and not a care in the world...

I'm sure such a dream is common amongst many of us, which is why casinos, lottery companies, pokie clubs and bookies all seem to do so well. It is human nature to strive to exit the rat race I believe, especially for the common man, a class I certainly belong to.

Anyway, enough drivel. The point of the blog is this: Lately there have been some big jackpots around in Oz Lotto and Powerball, and also a couple of Saturday Lotto Superdraws. I have been playing all of them to a degree, but mostly through syndicates. In my mind I have always been aware that Oz and PB are higher odds than Saturday, but I just wasn't sure by how much. So I did some research, some calc's, and have come up with the table below:

The odds are taken directly off The Lott website, and I have calculated the cost of an individual game, although for all bar the last two, you generally buy a minimum of six. As you can see, Mon/Wed Lotto is the cheapest by game, also providing the best odds, together with Saturday. Saturday's games are a bit more expensive, although provide for bigger potential prizes - Mon/Wed is a max of $1m for up to four people, whereas Sat is $5m-$40m, but shared amongst however many winners there are. 

Next step, considering we're talking millions to one at best for a single game, was to consider how many games I would need to play to get to a "reasonable" set of odds of 10,000 to 1. As you can see, for M/W/S that is 810 games. This would cost $493-$668. A lot of coin for a single draw. But then consider the others - Oz Lotto would require a $9,016 investment, and Powerball a crazy $16,364 one! And that's just for 10,000 to 1 odds! The rest are better, but still much worse than M/W/S.

So the first conclusion for me is this: I play only Mon/Wed and Sat Lotto! The one exception is a very small Set For Life game I keep going, as I like having just a little action on a daily basis. It costs me $37/month to do that. But for general Lotto play, let's ignore Oz, PB and the Lotteries products.

The next thing to consider is what does this mean in terms of what I am happy to spend? Well, I set myself a limit of $100 per week. As you can see from the 1/10,000 calc's, that doesn't get me the 493-668 required. Actually, before I continue, stuff it - I am not going to play M/W either, not for a maximum prize of $1 million. If I had more to spend then maybe, but I don't, so let's keep it simple and say we are Saturday Lotto players only now (with the small SFL caveat). So that means, $100 spend doesn't get us the 668 games needed for 1 in 10,000, it actually gets us 121 games. This then equates to 1 in 66,825 odds per week. Better than 1 in 8.1 million for sure, but still fairly long.

So, what if we want to reduce those odds even further? Well, they have always been around, but now are available on the website, for any store in your state, and that is Store Syndicates. These are awesome, because they give you a much better chance of a prize. For instance, I play a couple regularly - one is a System 11 and a System 10 ticket. A 1/15th share costs you $37.06, and is equivalent to 672 games! To buy that ticket yourself would cost you $37.06 x 15 = $555.90, too big a splurge on Lotto for most of us I imagine. So getting this kind of action in a syndicate is a great way to go. Of course the downside is that if you win, you only get 1/15th of the prizemoney too. Still, you get multiples in systems games. For instance if you won Division 1 in a System 11 game, well you get the Div1 prize of course, but you also get Div3 30 times, Div4 150 times and Div6 200 times! I have only ever got a max of four numbers in one of these, but that still returns Div4 21 times and Div6 140 times!

My weekly $100 spend is going to look something like this:

I have a single Systems 8, with lucky family numbers in it, the two regular shop syndicates where I live, plus a Quickpick 18 games ticket to get it close to $100. That gives me a mix of both regular games, my own systems and syndicates. As you can see in the table, that's the equivalent of 830 games, which is awesome! However, when you apply the syndicate shares to those tickets, I get only 6.7% and 10% of the two of them.

To put this in perspective, looking at history, there is roughly an average of two Div1 winners each Saturday. Given the average prize is $5m, that means the average divisional prize is $2.5m. The next table shows the two different approaches and what it means for your potential winnings:

For the normal $100 spend, giving 121 games, if you win, you get the lot. So that means a 1 in 66,825 chance of winning $2.5m. For the mixed approach, which I am employing for now, line by line you can calculate the number of games against the total, then apply the percentage of the prize you would win - 100% for my own Sys8 and the Quickpick, and those smaller percentages for the syndicate tickets. That result is a 1 in 9,759 chance of winning a reduced prize of $307,229.

I hope that spells it out clearly enough. Tonight is the NYE Superdraw, worth a cracking $40m! I have my new approach in it, plus a couple of extras. Wish me luck!

The Silver Bullet

I came across this beer for the first time back in 1999, after I had been to the US for my initial trip. On the flight over, I met a Melbourne lady who I was seated next to. It was a loooonnnngggg flight from Melbourne to LA via Auckland (~14hrs), so we had drinks and chatted the whole way. We then had a drink in the airport bar at LA prior to parting ways. We agreed to meet up when I got back to Oz in 6 weeks, as she was only having a brief visit.

My first trip to the good old US of A will be blogged about elsewhere, so let's skip to when I was back in Melbourne. The lady I met was kind enough to let me stay with her for a couple of nights - one night I went out with her and her friends to a wine bar in the CBD. To say I was out of place was one of the most massive understatements of all time. These people were hip, stylish, well-dressed. Me, well I have always been a bit of a bum, but at this time - 1999 - I was at the height of my bummish powers, let's just say that. 

However I did survive the night, and to thank this lady for her hospitality (name evades me), I took her to a fine dining restaurant - Donovans in St. Kilda. Honestly I remember nothing about the food or even the company - all I remember is when I was scanning the drinks menu for something, the waiter suggested I try what he referred to as the silver bullet. I hadn't really tried Japanese beer at this point, so I thought I'd give it a go. Here's what one looks like below:

It's a large, 650ml can, which I presume is aluminium like others, but this one is solid - cannot be crushed. So it feels weighty in the hand, is lovely when ice cold, and delicious either straight from the can or poured into a tall glass. I could say trying it was the moment a love affair was born, but it wasn't quite like that. Although I do, even now, occasionally hanker for one, and a couple of times per year will grab one when I'm at a Dan Murphy's or similar large outlet (small ones won't stock it). It's a cracking beer, with a great bite and flavour, and very easy to drink. Also, from my hazy memory of that first night in St Kilda, easy to get drunk on haha!

The Queen

So it was the Queen's birthday public holiday on Monday. Alex asked about it and we told him what the day was about. One of the others asked how old the queen was. When they heard she was 96, they were all amazed and one speculated that she would be dead before long.

That's when Alex piped up and said "when the Queen dies, Grandma will become queen"!

 

Footnote: I published this little snippet on June 15 2022. Who would have thought that less than three months later, the Queen actually passed? May she Rest In Peace. I'll let Alex know he can soon crown Grandma!

Tattered Remnants...

 So my lovely wife has been hassling me a bit to get rid of one of my shirts. It's an old Harley Davidson classic I got in KL, way back when. I have mentioned this before, but still giggle that people think I'm a biker because I wear Harley clothes. Nothing could be further from the truth!

That's my current shirt line-up. Another Harley one has since been added (thanks wifey!) but all these are probably the best part of 10-12 years old. The Harley one in the middle is the shirt in question, showing some serious signs of wear. Here's me wearing it below, also showing serious signs of wear. Turning 50 this year after all!

So the reason I ended up with all this Harley gear is simple. For a gweilo like me, shopping for clothes in Malaysia, or anywhere at all in Asia, can be problematic. I don't go high end, and the local stuff just isn't made in my size. There were one or two department stores in KL where I could find stuff, but it was seriously hit and miss and a pain in the arse. So when I discovered the Harley store at Suria Mall, I was impressed. They had my size and I liked the styles. Over the years, I kept going there and got to love their clothes so much that even now, I gravitate towards the brand. Hopefully this doesn't attract the attention of some hairy biker at some point in the future!

Dear Alex

 Dear Alex,

My Bubble G, you have now turned 5. What a big boy you are, and what a loving, cuddly and wonderful boy you have become. Your mama and I love you so much, we love your cuddles, your cheeky smile, your funny jokes.

I wrote that just after his birthday. He continues to amuse us and warm our hearts, in almost equal proportion to the times when he frustrates and angers us, but I guess that's 5yo's for you, especially when they are desperate to be a big kid, and skip most of the learning to get there.

Alex is getting better with his potty (no accidents for some time now, he may get that new iPad soon!), his attitude, his helpfulness and his reading & writing. He still doesn't always know when it is appropriate or inappropriate to joke about things (like saying "no" to everything), he still hits a bit much, and he can still be a pain. But he is a very sweet and loving boy, and he makes me happy. Watching you, and your siblings grow up is an absolute joy Alex, I shall miss it when you're no longer my little boy. But your journey towards being a big boy is equally as enjoyable and amazing to be a part of. Your role-playing, zest for gaming, and hilarity are all so endearing - you have a super personality. Dada is very proud of you.

Riverina Kids

I read this article earlier this year. It's a heart-breaking report about teenage suicide in this region of Australia. We're not talking major metro or regional cities either, just your average rural Australia. So for there to have been three suicides in recent times among teenagers is just tragic. As a parent it is scary. I don't think any of my kids would succumb to such mental problems, but I'm sure no parent does. Am I in-tune enough to see warning signs? Am I engaged enough to be a confidante to my kids? Will I be there when it matters? I don't know the answer, but I am damn sure I am going to make every effort with them. I try now to always follow up arguments or tears or perceived unjust situations with compassionate but frank discussion. I try to enable my kids to see how relationships work, and why it's ok to feel bad sometimes. But also that they are in charge of their feelings and emotions, and how they respond is a choice. Gosh it's not easy, but I must admit I never really felt like the risk of failure involved outcomes such as those portrayed in that news report (link below). 

Teenage Suicide

It's not really the sort of thing I want to blog about. And on the one hand, while I feel that modern society makes it all too easy to play the mental health card, take anti-depressants, that kind of thing, one the other hand, the statistics speak for themselves. Kids these days can struggle, and the cost of that struggle can sometimes be catastrophic. This post is a reminder to myself to continually check in with my kids, make sure they're ok, and let them know they always, always have support.

Me Old Pommy Mate

Not the best of photos, but this is me and my old Pommy mate, Dave Lowe. Dave and I shared a house in Hanbury Street, in Kalgoorlie, for a year in about 1996. Dave is a geologist, and was over for a year or so from the UK, gaining experience and travelling at the same time. He was a pit technician at the Superpit, and that's where we met.

In my first year in Kal I lived in a unit on Egan Street, near Judd's Pub. It was pretty cool, and I had numerous people stay with me during that time, but frankly it was too expensive ($250/week)  for a young man earning only $30,000 per year. So once the year's lease was up, good old Ed Radley, another geo at KCGM, was looking for someone to share his place, a prospect I snapped up! From memory I don't think it was long at all - perhaps simultaneously - that Dave joined us, and we had a great year living together. These memories are probably best told as a series of anecdotes, which is how I will portray them here:

1. Fireplace Incident - we used to get on the piss a fair bit in those days. The house, being an old fibro, was fucking cold in winter, so we decided to get a load of wood in. Most of it went well, but as we got to the end of the load, the biggest log left was simply too large to fit in the fireplace. So Dave and I had the genius idea to stick one end in and prop the other up with a survey peg. All went very well, until the end that was in there burned away, and the now heavier unburnt end fell out. I have a hazy and no doubt, alcohol-fueled memory of either Dave or I picking up the flaming log and hurling it outside to avoid burning the house down!
2. Ed Files - Fark I could write an entire blog on this alone. Ed was and no doubt still is, eccentric. He loved computer games, donuts and was a pretty typical early 20's slob. I always remember Dave and I watching X-Files with no lights on one night, and hearing Ed cursing the Greeks in his game of Civilisation in the background. Then he'd come into the living room and crouch down next to my chair to whisper how he got his revenge to me. It was really crazy behaviour, but innocent enough. When he was playing the Indians he'd use their war elephant units and you'd also hear them trumpeting in the background as he went to war. Dave and I never stopped giggling about Ed and his exploits. 
3. Red Dwarf - To this day, Dave and I quote endlessly, the banter between the various characters on this iconic show - "you never learn do you?" being a key one. We both still watch it from time to time, and hardly a WhatsApp conversation goes by without one of us dropping into Rimmer-mode and admonishing the other. 
4. The Late Show - Less iconic and long-lasting than Red Dwarf, but for its time an awesome comedy show, we also quoted from this at each other, ad infinitum. Particularly the scene where Rob Sitch played Robert de Niro on a quiz show - "that Spain thing, was that for me? Oh you know the answer, but you're asking me, why would you do that?". Hahaha, I am chortling to myself now as I type.
5. Pasta For Wun - We occasionally cooked together, but mostly just fended for ourselves, never missing the opportunity for a dig or pretense at offense. Dave used to get these packet foods called Paste For One, so I never let the occasion go by without feigning hurt. Plus I could take the piss out of his accent, hence the title - Paste For Wun, as that's how he pronounced it. Probably sounds silly to outsiders, but these are the glimpses of memory of our time together that both stick, and still bring a smile to my face to this day.
6. General Sports Banter - Even now we're always having a go at each other about cricket, rugby, football or any other sport, especially when the other's team is performing poorly. The "do you know what you're doing when..." quote comes out often, and is hilarious!

Anyway, there are some examples of my memories of Dave. Probably what' most important is that our friendship has lasted for a very long time, even when for a number of years we were out of touch. That's huge for me. I have only a couple of friends who seem to put the effort in, and Davey boy is one of them. Long may it last! I just hope I get to see him in person again one of these days....